It’s been fascinating — and at times dizzying — to watch the fintech sector evolve over the past few years. If you’ve been building through this time, you’ve likely lived through all four seasons of this industry cycle: the late spring of 2018–2019 when fintech found its identity, the explosive EDM summer of early COVID, the investment freeze of fintech winter, and now, in 2024, the first signals of a thaw.
These seasons aren’t just abstract metaphors. They’ve stamped some distinct phases onto our collective experience as founders, builders, and technologists. The rapid expansion of early 2020 wasn’t just an uptick in valuations — it was a full-volume embrace of digital financial experiences. Consumers moved online, regulators gave breathing room, and capital poured in. At one point, a full quarter of venture funding was going into fintech. The confidence was palpable.
That surging confidence, of course, couldn’t last forever. Between mid-2022 and the end of 2023, the music stopped. Interest rates went up, risk appetite evaporated, and today’s perpetual problem — fraud — grew louder. Many startups went quiet. A few pivoted or were quietly absorbed. But those who stayed — and kept building — were different. Seasoned, focused. More infrastructure, fewer celebrity card drops.
Now in 2024, the feeling has shifted again. It’s early spring. Optimism, but with caution. Growth, but more measured. In place of flashy launches, we’re seeing more fundamental progress: novel fraud detection systems, embedded finance finding real use in industrial players like Ford and John Deere, even traditional banks asserting themselves with conviction: “We are the fintech now,” as we’ve heard more than once.
This moment feels different from past upswings. Partly because some of fintech’s oldest questions — “Can we digitize banking?”, “Will consumers trust small companies with their money?” — have largely been answered. The real questions now are around scale, security, and reach.
Perhaps most central to all of it is the role AI is starting to play. Over the past year, it’s become clear that AI is now a core layer of infrastructure for any financial service. But in practice, its loudest impact to date hasn’t been delighting users — it’s been arming fraudsters.
Fraud is growing at 18 to 20 percent per year. That’s a staggering number. And behind it is a reality we deal with firsthand: AI makes it easier to create synthetic identities, mimic behavior, and constantly test the edges of systems. Fintech companies are ratcheting up spend on fraud tools — moving beyond point-in-time decisions to behavioral scoring across networks. We’re watching tools like Plaid Protect bring systemic perspective to the problem, using data across thousands of apps to see what an actual trusted user base looks like. Others are experimenting with biometrics, CAPTCHA alternatives, and verification networks.
At the same time, AI isn’t just making problems worse — it’s also revealing solutions. There’s real traction behind AI-powered functions in compliance, servicing, collections, and underwriting. Agentic financial services — where software actually operates on behalf of users, like a “self-driving money” agent — are being piloted. Despite trust hurdles, we think they’ll stick. Not because people are excited to hand over their finances, but because the alternative is too confusing. If AI tools can keep users in control while improving outcomes, they’ll win.
We’re also seeing the fintech stack deepen. Early players like SoFi and Robinhood have matured into full-stack operators. Square grabbed a banking charter. Plaid is no longer just infrastructure — they’re resurfacing the things that matter most, like creditworthiness and safety, in new ways. Their Lens Score reimagines how we view risk: not just whether someone paid off a loan, but whether their income and expenses are sustainably matched. These are no longer just fintechs — they’re financial institutions.
On the market side, venture capital has rotated too. In place of early consumer-first bets — the “new way to bank” slogans — we’re seeing B2B fintech software rise in priority. Efficiency sells. Especially when CEOs and CFOs can clearly see AI driving down costs in legacy compliance or helping respond to customer inquiries in 17 languages.
This is a classic maturation curve. As trust in tech builds in the enterprise space, adoption accelerates — what used to require a demo and a dinner now gets a 30-minute call and a signed contract. Fintech is becoming less about disruption and more about alignment.
Crypto, meanwhile, is finding its way back into the center of the conversation through more utilitarian lenses. Stablecoins like USDC are becoming modern checking accounts. Regulatory conversations are maturing. We’re a long way from the days of dog coins as public equities, but the infrastructure and behavioral insights from those boom years aren’t going to waste.
So what does this all mean as we head toward 2026?
We expect more convergence. More companies becoming banks in everything but charter; more banks embracing fintech tools they would once have feared. More AI sitting quietly in the background — not a product, but a new layer of execution. Trust will define the winners, especially for consumer-facing offers. But the B2B layer is heating up fast.
Fraud will continue to cost us money — possibly a lot of it — and the arms race won’t end quickly. But the industry is starting to cooperate across networks rather than trying to fight the problem alone. That gives us hope.
Most of all, this new spring isn’t just optimistic — it feels grounded. There’s less hype, fewer overnight unicorns, and more long-term product work underway. Across the industry, the belief seems to be: we’ve seen the chaotic seasons play out. Now we’re planting slower seeds.
And this time, we’re building for weather.
These seasons aren’t just abstract metaphors. They’ve stamped some distinct phases onto our collective experience as founders, builders, and technologists. The rapid expansion of early 2020 wasn’t just an uptick in valuations — it was a full-volume embrace of digital financial experiences. Consumers moved online, regulators gave breathing room, and capital poured in. At one point, a full quarter of venture funding was going into fintech. The confidence was palpable.
That surging confidence, of course, couldn’t last forever. Between mid-2022 and the end of 2023, the music stopped. Interest rates went up, risk appetite evaporated, and today’s perpetual problem — fraud — grew louder. Many startups went quiet. A few pivoted or were quietly absorbed. But those who stayed — and kept building — were different. Seasoned, focused. More infrastructure, fewer celebrity card drops.
Now in 2024, the feeling has shifted again. It’s early spring. Optimism, but with caution. Growth, but more measured. In place of flashy launches, we’re seeing more fundamental progress: novel fraud detection systems, embedded finance finding real use in industrial players like Ford and John Deere, even traditional banks asserting themselves with conviction: “We are the fintech now,” as we’ve heard more than once.
This moment feels different from past upswings. Partly because some of fintech’s oldest questions — “Can we digitize banking?”, “Will consumers trust small companies with their money?” — have largely been answered. The real questions now are around scale, security, and reach.
Perhaps most central to all of it is the role AI is starting to play. Over the past year, it’s become clear that AI is now a core layer of infrastructure for any financial service. But in practice, its loudest impact to date hasn’t been delighting users — it’s been arming fraudsters.
Fraud is growing at 18 to 20 percent per year. That’s a staggering number. And behind it is a reality we deal with firsthand: AI makes it easier to create synthetic identities, mimic behavior, and constantly test the edges of systems. Fintech companies are ratcheting up spend on fraud tools — moving beyond point-in-time decisions to behavioral scoring across networks. We’re watching tools like Plaid Protect bring systemic perspective to the problem, using data across thousands of apps to see what an actual trusted user base looks like. Others are experimenting with biometrics, CAPTCHA alternatives, and verification networks.
At the same time, AI isn’t just making problems worse — it’s also revealing solutions. There’s real traction behind AI-powered functions in compliance, servicing, collections, and underwriting. Agentic financial services — where software actually operates on behalf of users, like a “self-driving money” agent — are being piloted. Despite trust hurdles, we think they’ll stick. Not because people are excited to hand over their finances, but because the alternative is too confusing. If AI tools can keep users in control while improving outcomes, they’ll win.
We’re also seeing the fintech stack deepen. Early players like SoFi and Robinhood have matured into full-stack operators. Square grabbed a banking charter. Plaid is no longer just infrastructure — they’re resurfacing the things that matter most, like creditworthiness and safety, in new ways. Their Lens Score reimagines how we view risk: not just whether someone paid off a loan, but whether their income and expenses are sustainably matched. These are no longer just fintechs — they’re financial institutions.
On the market side, venture capital has rotated too. In place of early consumer-first bets — the “new way to bank” slogans — we’re seeing B2B fintech software rise in priority. Efficiency sells. Especially when CEOs and CFOs can clearly see AI driving down costs in legacy compliance or helping respond to customer inquiries in 17 languages.
This is a classic maturation curve. As trust in tech builds in the enterprise space, adoption accelerates — what used to require a demo and a dinner now gets a 30-minute call and a signed contract. Fintech is becoming less about disruption and more about alignment.
Crypto, meanwhile, is finding its way back into the center of the conversation through more utilitarian lenses. Stablecoins like USDC are becoming modern checking accounts. Regulatory conversations are maturing. We’re a long way from the days of dog coins as public equities, but the infrastructure and behavioral insights from those boom years aren’t going to waste.
So what does this all mean as we head toward 2026?
We expect more convergence. More companies becoming banks in everything but charter; more banks embracing fintech tools they would once have feared. More AI sitting quietly in the background — not a product, but a new layer of execution. Trust will define the winners, especially for consumer-facing offers. But the B2B layer is heating up fast.
Fraud will continue to cost us money — possibly a lot of it — and the arms race won’t end quickly. But the industry is starting to cooperate across networks rather than trying to fight the problem alone. That gives us hope.
Most of all, this new spring isn’t just optimistic — it feels grounded. There’s less hype, fewer overnight unicorns, and more long-term product work underway. Across the industry, the belief seems to be: we’ve seen the chaotic seasons play out. Now we’re planting slower seeds.
And this time, we’re building for weather.